You Won’t See Trump’s Taxes Before Election Day, But He Could Face Bigger Problems

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President Trump is not pleased with the Supreme Court’s decision on Thursday that his financial records have to be turned over to a New York grand jury.





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Law
Supreme Court Says Trump Not ‘Immune’ From Records Release, But Hedges On House Case

The other case involves a New York grand jury, which is seeking Trump’s financial records, including his taxes, from third parties, like banks and accountants, not from the president directly.

Little is known about that New York investigation, led by New York County District Attorney Cyrus Vance. The only way Trump’s taxes or other financial records would be made known to the public is if people are indicted, the case goes to trial and the financial records are used as evidence. That would take months, if not longer.

Is this a win or loss for the president?

Overall, it’s a big loss. Details of his financial dealings are likely to eventually be made public – something Trump has long tried to avoid.

Now, he and his allies could argue that it’s not all bad, given that none of the information is likely to come out before November and, therefore, won’t have an impact on his reelection.

But given the country’s polarization, unless something provably criminal came out, it’s probably unlikely that it would have had much impact on the presidential election anyway. But that may not be the point. (More on that below.)

After all, the Access Hollywood tape, which showed Trump engaged in a lewd conversation about women, came out in October 2016, and Trump still won. And, when it comes to taxes, Trump has said before that it made him «smart to figure out how not to pay them. His base has never abandoned him.

All that said, look at how Trump’s reacting to what were big decisions from the court– and in a 7-to-2 manner – that, bottom line, said a president does not have categorical immunity to block a subpoena, just because he’s president.

Trump tweeted that it’s «not fair that he has «to keep fighting in a politically corrupt New York and that, in the past, the court has given «broad deference to presidents.

The Supreme Court sends case back to Lower Court, arguments to continue. This is all a political prosecution. I won the Mueller Witch Hunt, and others, and now I have to keep fighting in a politically corrupt New York. Not fair to this Presidency or Administration!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 9, 2020

Setting the record straight, though: the high court has never said a president has immunity from all forms of subpoenas. While the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel has advised that a president should not be indicted while in office, the Supreme Court in U.S. v. Nixon forced the release of secret White House tape recordings that eventually led to Nixon’s resignation.

Do we know what the New York grand jury is investigating?

We don’t know exactly what the grand jury is investigating – it’s secret. But it could be anything and everything related to Trump, the Trump Organization and people around him. That’s made pretty clear by the reaction from Vance after the ruling.

«This is a tremendous victory for our nation’s system of justice and its founding principle that no one – not even a president – is above the law, Vance said in a statement. «Our investigation, which was delayed for almost a year by this lawsuit, will resume, guided as always by the grand jury’s solemn obligation to follow the law and the facts, wherever they may lead.

«Wherever they may lead is pretty expansive and shows why Trump is so irritated by all of this.



Elections
The Economy May Be Losing Its Impact On Presidential Elections

There are some clues from Trump’s former lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen’s congressional testimony from last year.

«It was my experience that Mr. Trump inflated his total assets when it served his purposes, such as trying to be listed among the wealthiest people in Forbes, and deflated his assets to reduce his real estate taxes, Cohen said.

That’s just one example. A mysterious $50 million loan for a project in Chicago is also under scrutiny.

With all that, whether this matters to the presidential election or not might be beside the point. His financial records being fully investigated has the potential to imperil the organization he built and people who work for it, including himself — and his children.

Remember, Trump was already ordered last year to pay $2 million in damages for misuse of funds from his foundation and it was in the process of dissolving because of it.

How does Biden try to leverage this?

Biden has already been trying to make this a matter of corruption and transparency.

It certainly helps blunt Trump’s attacks on Biden for his son Hunter’s role in sitting on an energy company board in Ukraine while Ukraine was part of Biden’s portfolio as vice president.



Elections
Biden Counters Trump’s ‘America First’ With ‘Build Back Better’ Economic Plan

Biden has gone after Trump on his taxes, pointing out that he’s released 21 years of tax returns.

On Thursday, after the court’s ruling, Biden tweeted that again with: «As I was saying.

As I was saying. https://t.co/NwOKjL0Zhj

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 9, 2020