A Tougher Road With Biden: The World Leaders Who Banked On Trump

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Russian President Vladimir Putin hands President Trump a World Cup soccer ball during a joint news conference after their summit on July 16, 2018, in Helsinki.

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World
Trump Vs. Biden: How Russia Sees The U.S. Election

Case in point: the Helsinki summit in 2018 in which Trump refused to unequivocally back his own intelligence agencies’ assessment that Russia had interfered in the 2016 U.S. election. Putin, Trump said, was «extremely strong in his denials. Fast forward to 2020 and U.S. intelligence agencies believe Russia is still engaging in «malign foreign influence — including the use of social media and propaganda — that, they say, primarily goes after Biden. (The Kremlin denies any interference in U.S. elections.) The drumbeat of interference assertions was a major reason U.S.-Russian relations never really had a chance to improve.

How it might change under Biden

«I think the very fact that Biden was Obama’s vice president already makes him not a friendly figure in Russia, says Moscow-based political analyst Masha Lipman. Biden, who repeatedly highlights the importance of preserving NATO, is likely to adopt a tougher line against Russia.

The only thing that helps the Kremlin, Lipman says, is more polarization and turmoil in the United States. «Turmoil means the United States weakened, she says. «This is what the Kremlin can actually benefit from, not an improvement in relations.

The relationship with China’s Xi Jinping

Asia
China Closely Follows U.S. Election In Hopes To Normalize Ties

An Anxious China Awaits Result Of U.S. Presidential Race

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On the campaign trail and throughout his presidency, Trump has railed against China but has also voiced admiration for Chinese leader Xi Jinping as he tried to secure trade deals that were beneficial to the United States. Who could forget his January tweet praising Xi over his handling of the novel coronavirus? As the virus ravaged the West, Trump changed course, using China as a punching bag and saying his relationship with the Chinese leader has since frayed. Putting aside the leaders’ relationship, the two countries are probably experiencing the worst ties in years. The Trump administration has sanctioned Chinese officials, targeted Chinese tech companies, arrested alleged Chinese spies and regularly challenges the country’s claims in the South China Sea.

How it might change under Biden

Biden regularly touts the tough line he took as vice president against Xi. Biden says he would force China to «play by the international rules. He frames the issue as bringing together democracies to counter «abusive economic practices. Tony Blinken, Biden’s top foreign policy adviser, told NPR Biden would focus on «our competitiveness, on revitalizing our democracy, on strengthening our alliances and partnerships, on reasserting our values. That’s how you engage China from a position of strength. China, for its part, sees the U.S. as a declining power. In its recently revealed five-year plan, Beijing signaled that it expects more American-led tariffs on its exports and more sanctions on its tech firms but that it’s also confident to meet those challenges.

The relationship with Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks with President Trump prior to the President’s departure from Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv on May 23, 2017, in Jerusalem. The visit was part of Trump’s first Middle East trip after taking office.

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How it might change under Biden

Danny Danon, who most recently served as Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, says Biden would also be «good with Israel. Nevertheless, Biden was VP during Obama and Netanyahu’s famously frosty relationship and it’s hard to see the two leaders sharing as close a relationship as Trump and Netanyahu’s.

Mitchell Barak, a pollster in Jerusalem, says that a Biden administration would probably want to take a more even-handed approach with Israel. Under Trump, ties with the Palestinian leadership broke down. «They’re going to start to try and make it a little more even-handed or to look more even-handed. And the free lunches that we’ve been getting up until now — we’re going to have to pay for some of those things. And then Netanyahu does not have the advantage because it’s going to be more of an antagonistic relationship, says Barak.

The relationship with India’s Narendra Modi

The two leaders have had each other’s backs even as they’ve both faced criticism for discriminating against minorities. When he was pressed to question Prime Minister Narendra Modi about anti-Muslim riots in India, Trump gave him a pass. «And I will say that the prime minister was incredible on what he told me. He wants people to have religious freedom, he said during his visit to India earlier this year.

Asia
What Might Happen To U.S.-India Relations Under A President Biden

What Might Happen To U.S.-India Relations Under A President Biden

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How it might change under Biden

A Biden-Harris administration is likely to voice stronger rhetoric on Modi’s record on human rights, the environment and Kashmir. Still, India is seen as an important counterweight to China in the region and Biden will not want to upset that.

«Since the George W. Bush administration, the United States has recognized India’s potential as a natural balancer to China. It’s been a proponent of the U.S.-India relationship due to India’s strategic location, its potential as a market, says Akriti Vasudeva at the Stimson Center, a think tank in Washington, D.C.

The relationship with Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador

When he launched his campaign for president in 2015, Trump vilified Mexicans: «They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people. He also repeatedly threatened tariffs on Mexican exports. But over the years, and especially as he worked to secure the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, Trump and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s relationship has grown closer. Critics of López Obrador say that he caved in to Trump by adopting harsher policies toward Central American migrants. But analysts say the Mexican leader didn’t have much choice particularly as he faced Trump’s threats of tariffs and forcing Mexico to pay for a border wall.

Latin America
Mexicans Wonder What A Biden Victory Would Mean For U.S.-Mexico Relations

Mexicans Wonder What A Biden Victory Would Mean For U.S.-Mexico Relations

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«It would be very costly for López Obrador to get in a fight with Donald Trump, says Carlos Bravo Regidor, a political analyst and professor at Mexico’s Center for Research and Teaching in Economics.

How it might change under Biden

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Then-Vice President Joe Biden (left) shakes hands with then-Mexican presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador, during a meeting on March 5, 2012, in Mexico City.

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Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro horse-riding during a demonstration in favor of his government amid the coronavirus pandemic in front of Planalto Palace on May 31, in Brasilia.

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How it might change under Biden

«It would be a sort of earthquake, Rubens Ricupero, a former Brazilian ambassador to the U.S., says. Biden would likely pressure Bolsonaro on the erosion of human rights protections, including for Indigenous people, but it’s the Brazilian leader’s positions on the Amazon that would really be scrutinized. Biden wants to join forces with other counties to create a $20 billion fund for Brazil as part of an effort to press Bolsonaro to end rising deforestation. Still, Biden would need Brazil’s cooperation on Venezuela and containing China, Brazil’s biggest trading partner.

The relationship with Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Politics
What Might Happen To U.S.-Turkey Relations Under A President Biden

What Might Happen To U.S.-Turkey Relations Under A President Biden

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The two leaders have had a bumpy relationship, but Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also understood the benefit of a good rapport with Trump and preying on his instincts — particularly one that has to do with Trump’s anathema of having U.S. troops in the «endless wars. With one phone call last year, Erdogan got Trump to move U.S. troops in Syria out of the way so that Turkish soldiers could attack Kurdish forces, forces who were U.S. allies in the fight against ISIS. Still, though Trump has called Erdogan a «good friend, he also at one point threatened to «totally destroy and obliterate the Turkish economy.

How it might change under Biden

For one thing, it might become more predictable. Turkey might find that it has to rein in the adventurous foreign policy it enjoyed under Trump.

Biden would also most likely pressure Turkey on its human rights record — particularly its jailing of journalists and other critics. Significant issues also divide Ankara and Washington, including Turkey’s purchase of Russian missiles.

The relationship with the Saudi crown prince

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Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince (left), smiles as President Trump holds a chart displaying military hardware sales during a meeting in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on March 20, 2018.

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How it might change under Biden

The former vice president has cast the kingdom as a «pariah — making it clear Mohammed bin Salman would likely have a tougher time making inroads with a potential Biden administration. Biden has also threatened to stop selling arms to Saudi Arabia, a top buyer of U.S. weaponry.

«So there might be some cuts in terms of particular arms sales. There might be symbolic punishments. But the Biden administration is going to want a good relationship with Saudi Arabia despite the many problems, says Daniel Byman, a Middle East specialist at Georgetown University.

The relationship with Hungary’s Viktor Orban

Europe’s populists, often shunned by Brussels, have found a natural ally in President Trump, who shares their disdain for migrants, the media and dissent. But it’s Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, who leads the pack. He was the only European Union leader to endorse Trump in 2016. Four years and a White House visit later, Orban calls Trump a friend and predicts he will win reelection. The populist leaders of Slovenia (Melania Trump’s native country) and Serbia have also endorsed the president.

Elections
Publicly, Hungary PM Orbán Predicts Trump Win. Privately, Prepares For Loss

Publicly, Hungary PM Orbán Predicts Trump Win. Privately, Prepares For Loss

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Previous U.S. administrations shunned Hungary, and the EU is investigating Hungary and Poland, run by another Trump-friendly government, for rule of law violations. Ivan Krastev, a political scientist who leads the Center for Liberal Strategies in Sofia, Bulgaria, says the two countries have used their alliance with Trump to make it clear «that they have an alternative to Brussels.

How it might change under Biden

Biden mentioned Poland and Hungary when slamming Trump’s foreign policy during a town hall last month, adding, «this president embraces all the thugs in the world. The remark angered Hungary’s government, but Orban is already casting Biden as part of the international liberal elite. «We know well American Democratic governments’ diplomacy, built on moral imperialism, Orban wrote in a recent essay in the pro-government newspaper Magyar Nemzet.

«He knows he has a lot to lose, so he’s already positioned himself for the world without Trump, says Krastev, the political scientist.

Lucian Kim, John Ruwitch, Emily Feng, Daniel Estrin, Lauren Frayer, Carrie Kahn, Philip Reeves, Peter Kenyon, Jackie Northam and Joanna Kakissis contributed reporting.