How This Conservative Florida County Became A Surprise 2020 Battleground

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American history teacher Monique Sampson recently decided to vote for Joe Biden. She still doesn’t like plenty of Biden’s policies, and she’s not thrilled he’s the presumptive Democratic nominee. But a summer of chaos has made her reassess her politics.

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New energy from activists

In the late 1960s, Duval County and the city of Jacksonville merged into one entity, creating a large sprawling city that feels like an overgrown suburb. President Trump has struggled in recent polling with suburban voters nationwide, and the same trend seems evident in Duval.

Mitt Romney won the county by a bigger margin in 2012 than Donald Trump did in 2016 (though Romney lost the state of Florida and Trump won it).

Beyond demographics, activists point to the work that progressive groups like Indivisible and the New Florida Majority have been doing on the ground.

Traditionally, after a midterm, the state party packs up and goes home, but after the 2018 elections, half a dozen Democratic staffers stayed on the ground to prepare for the presidential race.

Activists like Sampson, a cofounder of the Jacksonville Community Action Committee, organized protests for racial justice this summer with voter registration tables.

Sampson is frank when describing her hometown.

«It can be very backwards politically, she said, sitting on the steps of the county courthouse in downtown Jacksonville. «If you drive down the street from here … you have Hemming Park — that’s named after a Confederate. You have Confederate Park, which is named after the Confederacy.

But as critical as she is, Sampson admits her county feels like it’s changing. Earlier this summer, she organized a protest for racial justice. She said 10,000 people showed up. She was floored.

New residents, new politics

The old assumption was that this corner of Florida was more culturally akin to South Georgia than the Democratic enclaves of Miami and Orlando. Multiple people said they couldn’t have envisioned a time when confederate statues would be taken down.

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Lisa King, 57, is the former chair of the Duval Democratic Party and was born and raised in Jacksonville.

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Jack Rowan is a recent high school graduate who registered as a Republican because of fiscal policy.

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John Delaney is a former mayor of Jacksonville and a Republican. He doesn’t agree with Trump’s style and said he won’t be voting for him.

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«The single most important county

In Duval County, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans, but the GOP still usually wins elections. Jacksonville has a Republican mayor. The GOP has a majority on the city council as well.

But in 2018, Andrew Gillum, the Democratic candidate for governor, won Duval County — a first since the 1980s.

Republicans and Democrats agree this November will be tight.

«Arguably the single most important county in the single most important state in the most important election in a century is Duval County, said Dean Black, the GOP county chair.

Black is convinced that more than demographic change, Democrats started doing better in the area because Republicans became complacent over the years with little competition.

«The party did not do its job, he said.

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Dean Black is the Duval County GOP chair. He thinks Democrats started doing better in the area because Republicans became complacent over the years with little competition.

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Republicans host a voter registration drive in Ponte Vedra, a coastal, conservative community outside of Jacksonville.

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Republicans host a voter registration drive in Ponte Vedra, a coastal, conservative community outside of Jacksonville.

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On a recent weekend, Republicans with no masks on were selling Trump face masks and t-shirts outside a grocery store in Ponte Vedra, a wealthy, overwhelmingly white community on the ocean just southeast of Jacksonville in neighboring St. Johns County.

St. Johns is one of the most college-educated counties in the state. The president’s enduring popularity here runs counter to trends in other well-educated suburban enclaves and it’s a sign of hope for the GOP. Many people — some fleeing Duval — have been moving here in recent years for better schools and cheaper housing.

«The secret started getting out about the great schools, said Brandon Patty, the GOP chair in St. Johns County. «It’s safe, the sheriff’s office is real good. Next thing you know, St. Johns develops into a conservative heavyweight … it’s a red county.

When the president speaks about law and order, it’s a message meant for a place like St. Johns. In 2016, over 60% of voters here chose President Trump.
And most Republicans think he deserves reelection.

«From a policy perspective, economically he’s done very well with the deregulation, with the tax cut, said Patty.

Ultimately, some Republicans say the demographics and the momentum nationwide will make it difficult to win Duval County. And so for Trump to keep Florida red, they’ll need to focus on a broader game plan.

Dean Black, the Duval County GOP chair, said he’s fundamentally focused on a «North Florida strategy.

«The bottom line is we need north Florida to turn out the Republican vote totals to overwhelm South Florida, Black said. «The truth is, a vote for President Trump in Duval County will count the same as one from St. Johns County or Nassau County or Leon County — right? It doesn’t really matter where the votes come from.