Could Trump Make a Comeback in 2024?

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Leaving Washington, D.C., behind, the Trumps board Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on Jan. 20, hours before President Biden’s inauguration.





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Politics
Club Of 1-Term Presidents Awaits Its Reluctant New Member: Trump

There have also been eight presidents who have died in office. Four in the 1800s (William Harrison, Zachary Taylor, Abraham Lincoln and James Garfield) were succeeded by lackluster vice presidents who were not nominated for a term on their own. Four in the 1900s (William McKinley, Warren Harding, Franklin D. Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy) were succeeded by vice presidents whose parties did nominate them for a term in their own right (Theodore Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson).

Each of these four went on to win a term on his own, and each then left office voluntarily. As noted above, Theodore Roosevelt later changed his mind, and Johnson began the 1968 primary season as an incumbent and a candidate but ended his run at the end of March.





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A statue of President Andrew Jackson in Lafayette Square near the White House in June.





Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images



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Analysis
Trumpism Suffers Untold Damage In Its Collision With The U.S. Capitol

It is not hard to imagine Trump invoking the spirit of Jackson’s 1828 campaign against the «corrupt bargain, if he runs in 2024 against «the steal (his shorthand for the outcome of the 2020 election, which he falsely claims was illegitimate).

Jackson, the ultimate outsider in his own time, makes a far better template for Trump than either Cleveland or Teddy Roosevelt – even though the latter two were New Yorkers like Trump.





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A statue of Theodore Roosevelt in New York City. After leaving office, Roosevelt tried unsuccessfully to return to the White House.





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Elections
‘A Hostage Situation Every Day’: Strategists Blame Trump For Georgia Senate Losses

For the time being, at least, Trump seems intent on wielding influence in the Republican Party he has dominated for the past five years – making it clear he will be involved in primaries in 2022 against Republicans who did not support his campaign to overturn the election results.

That is no idle threat. Most Trump supporters have shown remarkable loyalty throughout the post-election traumas, even after the riot in the U.S. Capitol. The fierceness of that attachment has sobered those in the GOP who had thought Trump’s era would wane after he was defeated. But Trump has been able to hold the popular imagination within his party, largely by convincing many that he was not defeated.

The results of the election have been certified in all 50 states by governors and state officials of both parties, and there is no evidence for any of the conspiracy theories questioning their validity. Nonetheless, multiple polls have shown Trump supporters continue to believe he was unjustly removed from office.



Analysis
There Is Precedent For Trying A Former Government Official, Established 145 Years Ago

Assuming Trump is not convicted on his impeachment charge of inciting an insurrection before the Jan. 6 invasion of the Capitol, he will not face a ban on future campaigns.


Some believe Trump might still be kept out of federal office by an invocation of the 14th Amendment. That part of the Constitution, added after the Civil War with former Confederate officers in mind, banned any who had «engaged in insurrection against the government.

But that wording could well be read to require action against the government, not just incitement of others to action by incendiary speech. It could also require lengthy litigation in federal courts and a balancing of the 14th Amendment with the free speech protections of the First Amendment.

All that can be said at this point is that the former president will settle into a post-presidential routine far from his previous homes in Washington and New York City. And the greatest obstacle to his return to power would seem to be the pattern of history regarding the post-presidential careers of his predecessors.