Amid Flood Of News, Voters Appear Locked In On Their Presidential Choices

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Supporters of President Trump line PA-981 outside of Arnold Palmer Regional Airport to get into a Sept. 3 rally in Latrobe, Pa.

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The president’s support is still strong in the rural communities where he surged in 2016.

NPR’s Scott Detrow talked to Trump backers waiting to hear the president at his rally in Latrobe, Pa., last week. The president won that area by 30 percentage points in 2016, and the massive crowd that showed up for his event during the pandemic shows the deep support he still has from his loyal base.

Even one dairy farmer who acknowledged Trump’s trade policies didn’t always benefit him personally told Detrow he was still all in for the president.

«We’ll do our part. We’ll do our part when it comes down to it, Mike Sever said.

Another voter affected by the virus and who remains unemployed doesn’t blame Trump.

«First off, has there ever been a pandemic to take over the world like this in such a short period of time? I think that Trump did the best that he could, considering the circumstances, Amy Taylor, a fitness instructor, told Detrow.

(These interviews with voters were conducted before the news broke that Trump told author Bob Woodward in February that the virus was «deadly stuff and that in March he said he deliberately «wanted to play it down to avoid a panic.)

The president’s focus on more rural areas may have limited yield. While his core voting bloc — white voters without a college degree — made up a large percentage of nonvoters in 2016 and could turn out in greater numbers this year, an analysis of census data by NPR and the Brookings Institution indicates that his base is shrinking.

Democrats try to expand map into traditionally red territory

Kevin Wood and Rachael McDermott pose for a masked portrait at a farmer’s market in Phoenix.

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Arizona has been a solidly red state going back to the 1950s, and the last time it voted for a Democrat for president was 1996.

But Democrat Kyrsten Sinema won a tight Senate race in 2018, and the party sees an opportunity in 2020. The state has experienced an influx of retirees, but also includes more minority voters — especially Latino voters.

KJZZ’s Jimmy Jenkins talked to voters at a farmer’s market in Phoenix, including some undecided voters who were not thrilled with their choices.

Kevin Wood told him, «I’m an independent, but this year, it’s a clear choice. Gotta go one way, so we’re gonna go the Biden way. He cited the Democrat’s temperament as a key factor.

But the national attention on protests has Trump supporters who rallied for him at the state Capitol last weekend pledging to stick with him.

«He’s my law-and-order president. That’s who he is. And the other ones are for chaos and no order, Ralph Ruggiero, who was carrying a «Liberty or Death sign, told Jenkins.

David Ashcroft and Amanda Kilcrease pose for a portrait in El Paso, Texas.

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Texas is another reliably red state that some Democrats argue should be considered a swing state this year, with shifting demographics changing the electorate there.

KTEP’s Angela Kocherga visited El Paso, one of Texas’ few strongholds for Democrats.

Party members believe one factor that could make places like Texas competitive is their effort to pump up youth turnout — a bloc that tends to have the lowest turnout rate, but one that leans Democratic.

But Kocherga found younger voters in El Paso were split on whether their vote would even matter — a sign the party still has work to do.

David Ashcroft, a 21-year-old waiter, appeared repelled by both candidates. «It kind of makes me sick to my stomach just knowing that I put one of these people in office, he told Kocherga. «The best thing for me is just to not vote.

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Amanda Kilcrease, a 20-year-old college student, said, «It just feels like if Trump wins again, like, then — and I didn’t vote, I would have guilt with that, too, that I didn’t take a small action that could have had an opposite outcome. But I’m also not happy with the outcome of Biden. I just want to stress that.

A «law and order message in crucial Wisconsin

The killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police in May triggered a national movement calling for racial justice. But the Trump campaign seized on the unrest — sometimes violent in several urban areas around the country — to argue that Democrats were soft on crime and that if Biden won, the threat against law enforcement would grow and spread to the suburbs.

The theme was prevalent throughout the Republican convention, with a focus on protests in Kenosha, Wis., following the police shooting of Jacob Blake, a Black man paralyzed after being shot multiple times in the back in late August.

The incident put the issue that the president has been focused on front and center in a state Trump won by less than 23,000 votes in 2016. Both the president and Biden visited Wisconsin last week — with very different messages. Trump lauded local law enforcement and highlighted local businesses damaged by riots. Biden met with Blake’s family and cited the president’s rhetoric as divisive, blaming him for further polarizing the country at a time when race relations are fragile.

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A resident of Kenosha, Wis., puts up a yard sign for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden on Sept. 3.

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«He just wants people to riot. He instills riots and discord, said Karen Cayman, who lives in an area north of Milwaukee.

Like other key swing states, the effort by the Trump campaign to push up votes from rural parts of Wisconsin could help him again. But Democrats vow not to have a repeat of 2016, when turnout dropped in urban areas like Milwaukee and Madison, and Hillary Clinton’s campaign appeared not to pay enough attention to the state. Additionally, activists seeing an uptick in people coming out for demonstrations vow that a focus on racial justice issues is motivating people not just to protest, but to vote.

Lauren Cross, involved in the Kenosha protests, told Silver about those on the streets: «I think, like, all the people out here are voting against Trump in some capacity.

Two Midwestern states give the campaigns reasons for hope

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Both the president and Biden have visited Michigan in recent days, and the state was part of the «blue wall of three Midwest states that flipped and supported Trump, handing him the White House in 2016.

WKAR’s Abigail Censky visited one town, Williamston, that is competitive this time around, and where there appears to be a split. Its congressional district backed Trump in 2016, but elected a Democrat, Elissa Slotkin, to Congress in 2018.

Todd Gardner noted that there still is a lot of support for Trump, but he’s prepared to back «anybody but Donald Trump.

He’s attracted to Biden’s pitch to return to a high level of civil discourse.

«My hope is that the tone of the presidency can return to what used to be normal, he told Censky. «I think this has not been a normal four years of a president, and I really would like to get back to people not shouting at each other. I know we live in a divided nation, but it just seems he’s made it more divided than it has to be.

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Republican state Rep. Dale Lueck represents Aitkin and the surrounding area in rural Minnesota.

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Trump’s Rural Support Puts Democratic Bulwark Minnesota In Play

While Gretchen was among a small group of voters who were moving to a new party in 2020, many voters that NPR and station reporters talked to had strong feelings about why they were sticking with their preferred candidate.

Sheri Holman, a Michigan union member who is among a bloc in the state who abandoned Democrats for Trump in 2016, is sticking with the president, even though she admits she doesn’t like him personally.

«He’s a strong — he’s got a strong backbone, she said.

But she isn’t convinced that after Election Day the country will move past the intense partisan split.

«I’m sure there’ll be riots no matter which way it goes, she says.

NPR’s Scott Detrow, KJZZ’s Jimmy Jenkins, KTEP’s Angela Kocherga, WUWM’s Maayan Silver, WKAR’s Abigail Censky and MPR’s Mark Zdechlik contributed to this report.